ProjectionLate 1st – Early 2nd#29–38
2yr NBA Guaranteed$0 (2nd Rd)
CFO NIL Value$1.33M
Should They Stay or Should They Go?
Five college basketball players testing the NBA Draft waters. The CFO Bridge Test says...
Published April 27, 2026
The NBA Draft is loaded with talent this year — so much so that several college stars who would have been first-round locks in any other class are testing the waters with one foot still on campus.
By May 27, each of them has to make a call: stay in the draft and start the NBA clock, or pull their name and return to college for another year of NIL money and draft-stock improvement.
We built a transparent rule for evaluating it — the CFO Bridge Test — and ran five of the most interesting declarations through it. The verdicts are below.
How the CFO Bridge Test works
- Compare 1 year of CFO NIL valuation to 2-year guaranteed NBA money at projected pick.
- STAY: NIL ≥ 2yr NBA guaranteed.
- GO: 2yr NBA guaranteed exceeds NIL by 50%+.
- LEAN: within 50%.
ProjectionLate 1st – Mid 2nd#28–45
2yr NBA Guaranteed$0 (2nd Rd)
CFO NIL Value$1.30M
ProjectionLate 1st – Early 2nd#25–40
2yr NBA Guaranteed$0 (2nd Rd)
CFO NIL Value$1.51M
ProjectionMid–Late 1st#25–32
2yr NBA Guaranteed$5.14M (Mid–Late 1st)
CFO NIL Value$2.00M
ProjectionLate 1st – Early 2nd#21–35
2yr NBA Guaranteed$5.14M (Late 1st)
CFO NIL Value$1.36M
| # | Player | Class | Projection | 2yr NBA Guar. | CFO NIL | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sophomore | Late 1st – Early 2nd#29–38 | $0 (2nd Rd) | $1.33M | STAY | |
| 2 | Freshman | Late 1st – Mid 2nd#28–45 | $0 (2nd Rd) | $1.30M | STAY | |
| 3 | Freshman | Late 1st – Early 2nd#25–40 | $0 (2nd Rd) | $1.51M | STAY | |
| 4 | Sophomore | Mid–Late 1st#25–32 | $5.14M (Mid–Late 1st) | $2.00M | GO | |
| 5 | Freshman | Late 1st – Early 2nd#21–35 | $5.14M (Late 1st) | $1.36M | GO |
Methodology
Draft projections are composite ranges drawn from ESPN's Top 100 big board, Bleacher Report's two-round mock (Wasserman), and Yahoo Sports / FanSided's post-deadline mock. Where outlets disagree, we show the full range.
NBA guaranteed money reflects the 2026-27 rookie scale at the midpoint of each player's projected range, with an 8% bump applied to 2025-26 actuals to account for the salary cap projection. Players projected outside the first round are listed at $0 — second-round picks receive no guaranteed contract under the current CBA.
NIL valuations are CFO modeled estimates except where reported figures are available. Morez Johnson Jr.'s $2.00M reflects multi-source reporting via Yahoo Sports.